Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-139.94.134.225-20140509160058/@comment-9890645-20140513121413

I actually did the math on this. The expectation of being successful more than 5 times out of 100 is about 38.4%. Five successes occurs 18% of the time, and less than that 43.6%. You're also more likely to go 4/100 than 6/100.

Simply put, with a 5% success rate, the odds are firmly against you outperforming and with you underperforming.