Board Thread:Current Episode Discussion/@comment-25031250-20141010191436/@comment-11107497-20141012074251

Striker4682 wrote: Terminalvertex wrote: EricRobin wrote:

I'm at 6 Torkuli[1] weapons on 6 pulls. This is statistically unrealistic.

Unfortunately, without knowing the rates, we can't actually make that claim. What if it is 91% r4, 5% r5, 4% r6.. Etc?

There is no mention of the chance and it would be naive to assume that all the rarities have equal rates.

We can not talk about things being off statistically with such a minimal dataset of less than 10 or 20 draws.

I got 7 torkuli weps before anything else. Then 1 galv, then 1 beak.

The odds could be 5-10%.

The people that got it after 1 or 2 draws, big deal. After they did the same number of total draws that the higher draw people did, did they have significantly more galv weapons? At least compare the same number of total draws with an appropriate total data set.

Try opening 10,000 gold Ep medals and not getting an r6 raider like me, and then we can talk about statistics.

I'm sorry but I find when people complain about odds without proper data to be very annoying.

Now, this doesn't mean I believe in the prng of the game. I believe the prng is probably as poorly coded as the rest of the game. The games all share source, so it's probably from some other game anyway.

I've opened 3000 medals this event and not a single half of an Ultra Magnus. How do you think I feel? Graduate to big numbers and you earn the right to complain. lol. Term, my sample size is a lot larger so I think I can complain at this point I've pulled the bridge 18 times and got torolkis weapon all 18 times is that a big enough sample? a minute ago Striker,

When trying to determine probability, no, less than 20 is not enough. For you to suggest that it is.. Well.. I'd suggest to never go to a casino and gamble with real money.

What exactly is your complaint? What is your theorised percent chance for the various cards that you feel isn't being met with your draws and what are you basing this on? I'm curious about this.

If the chance of getting something other than an r4 card is like 5% then there's no problem here. Look at the percent chance to catch the various mobs are various levels. On some levels it's 5%.

what if torkulis wep is 90% or 95%?

I understand. You're bitter because you gambled on an unknown probability and lost, but that is the nature of gambling.

Maybe you thought the probablity was high like 50% because you saw.. What.. One post about it? For everyone one person that posts saying they got it (and how many total so far?).. How many players do you think drew and didn't get it?

Instead of suggesting the probablity is high based on almost nothing, doesn't the data suggest the people that did get it were just extra 'lucky' and that the rate is much lower than what you assumed? I don't understand what all these assumptions about a high probability are being based on.. What exactly do you think the probablity is for the various weapons in that bridge?

Eric, indeed it shouldn't have galv's wep at all. The explanation for it being there is incompetence by the game team. It's also not the first time t1 prizes have been obtainable from bridges.