Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-9204520-20130621190525/@comment-10726652-20130621235130

Yeah no I'm fully aware it'll be wrong :P But I did say as a prelude to the 22% calcuation that I was working with simple probability to make the math simpler so 22% is close enough really without having to work it out further :P For me anyway!

Thing is... the way I read it there is no 7th, nor an 8th? You're basically stuck opening 6 again and again at those odds (15%)?

So the way I read it there is no increase to 32.78% chance at the 7th Tier (because it ends at 6), or through to 19/20/21. So your calculations about higher chances at those Tiers while correct (I'll assume) are possibly moot because I suspect you're capped at Tier 6 and the 15%ish chance that gives.