Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-10276925-20130831002217/@comment-11490363-20130901172928

SchappX54G wrote: Roanoke, my stats are from TBL - 3 Prowl Alts, 3 RA Alts. From Junkion reunion, 6 Sharpshot x7 bots, no alts.

Yep, just drew bot number 6 1 in 4000 for that run (1 in 2^(3 + 3 + 6)), but that is not as scary as it seems. The odds of not MTMing is NOT 1 in 4000.

The odds for no MTM for any of the 3 bots with the same number of pulls for each bot (3, 3, 6), which is different than just the run you got, is the product of the individual odds. You can't think of this as one run of 12, because you are talking about 3 different bridges and that means they are separate at some level, see below.

No MTM for 3 pulls is 1 in 4 (1 in 2^(n-1), n = 3).

No MTM for 6 pulls is 1 in 32 (1 in 2^(n-1), n = 6),

Overall it is 1 in (4 * 4 * 32) = 1 in 512. That is very improbable overall, but not unexpected considering the number of people using the bridges.

I am a few hundred away from a third X7 pull, I really need a bot.