Board Thread:Current Episode Discussion/@comment-25031250-20141010191436/@comment-25442605-20141012203231

Terminalvertex wrote: How can it be beyond comprehension if you don't know what the rate is?

What do you think it is? 5%.. 15%?

I just tried 15%

http://www.random.org/integers/?num=18&min=1&max=100&col=5&base=10&format=html&rnd=new

first go, 18 draws, nothing within the first 15. 85	71	21	79	41 37	90	89	41	20 69	94	18	25	98 95	48	28

further reading:

A guide to proper drop rate inference and sample sizes: http://forums.gearboxsoftware.com/showthread.php?t=286954 If you look at it with a Binomial Distribution, with the probability of getting a Torkuli weapon at 85%, the odds of 18 out of 18 are still low but not unacceptable.

My parameters:

Binomial Distribution (the best distribution to use as it is assuming success or failure only)

Probability of 'success' (i.e. pulling a Torkuli) at 85%

Number of trials: 18

Number of successes: 18

Theoretical Probability: 0.0536, or 5.36% which means that approx 1 in 20 will get 18 out of 18.

If you change the probability of pulling a Torkuli to something lower like 75% (not unreasonable), the chance of 18 out of 18 drops to 0.00564, or 0.564%. This is certainly unacceptable levels, if this is indeed the case.

If you change the probability of pulling a Torkuli to something higher like 95% (again, not unreasonable for Mobage, but it is for us!), the chance of 18 out of 18 increases to 0.397, or 39.7%. This seems the likely scenario, but the fact that some people (including me) have received Galvatron, Frenzy or Laserbeak weapons too would suggest that the actual probability of Torkuli weapon drop could be somewhere between 80% - 90%.

I think the real issue here is transparency, or lack of in this case. Seeing as we don't  know the associated probability for each of these items, we don't know what is acceptable and what is not. For these events (and potentially all events), Mobage could / should be telling us what the percentages of pulling each raider, weapon, whatever are and what is precisely in each space bridge. Maybe that is why they don't advertise the rates, so that we can't really complain. It wouldn't take much from them, they can put it in their official blog or in the episode notes etc.

Then there is an opportunity for them to make money off us in a fair way, as they can then have each option available as a 'guaranteed' option in their space bridges for either rubies or coins. Personally, I think the 100 coin bridge for weapons is a good model they could follow as the cost is low and tends to reward well. It is a golden opportunity they are squandering.

Feels good to be back at school, discussing probability again :-)