Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-10276925-20130831002217/@comment-11490363-20130831130229

SchappX54G wrote: this really wasn't an attempt to get a debate going, but I'm convinced mobage has no vested interest in making the bridge 50/50 especially a free bridge. In fact it doesn't make sense for it to be 50/50, and I'd imagine the odds are different for each player (I.e., why some of us have bots and some have alts. In the past it has been speculated that tfl typically drops cards that are already possessed more frequently. Unless we were able to read the code ourselves, we've got nothing other than the raw data we produce. Based on the frequency with which players have put together seemingly improbable runs of the same card captured, I am fully convinced that my theory is true. It just makes sense per the evidence and motivations. They've never claimed 50/50 on a free bridge.

PS I just got my 4th Sharpshot x7 bot. No alts. I am pretty convinced the other way to be honest. even 5 of one and nothing else is not that improbable given the base event is 50/50. This is typical with this sort of randomness. 5 heads in a row has a 1 in 32 chance of happening. There are surely more than 32 players using the bridge for that outcome to be at least present, if not somewhat common. Even then, it would only be common at a 1 in 32 frequency, which I think this forum bears as true.

You are forgetting that not all players that are using the bridge are posting their results, and my results are almost perfectly statistical for a 50/50 base percentage. And I have pulled 24 items.

If you were right, then I should be complaining that my pulls were not according to Mobages expectations, which people claim is long runs without pairs. The evidence simply does not bear that if you look at the numbers. Even a run of 10, which seems ridiculously impossible is only 1 in 1000. Surely there are 1000 people that are using the bridge and therefore at least 1 will have a run of 10. That is assuming only 1000 people using the bridge but this is true for every 1000 people using it. IF there are 6000 people using it then 6 of them will get runs of 10. This is NOT out of the ordinary, this is EXPECTED for this base rate.

Incidentally, my last pull at 1500 was a duplicate bot X7. Now I am pissed!!! ;) My net leftovers is 2 bots over 26 cards... Statistically highly probable.

What is important is not if 1 person has a run of 10 at all, but how many compared to what is EXPECTED. So far I don't see anything that makes me think it is not 50/50.