Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-10276925-20130831002217/@comment-11482499-20130831165213

Ranoake wrote:

Even a run of 10, which seems ridiculously impossible is only 1 in 1000. Surely there are 1000 people that are using the bridge and therefore at least 1 will have a run of 10. That is assuming only 1000 people using the bridge but this is true for every 1000 people using it. IF there are 6000 people using it then 6 of them will get runs of 10. This is NOT out of the ordinary, this is EXPECTED for this base rate. ... What is important is not if 1 person has a run of 10 at all, but how many compared to what is EXPECTED. So far I don't see anything that makes me think it is not 50/50.

This is a good explanation of Statistics & Probability 101, Ranoake.

What the "truth" is, is not you opening 10,000 medals (with all respect, Praxiz). In statistics that's a sample size of ONE, not 10,000. We all know a sample size of one means nothing. Even a sample size of 10 or 100 is quite sketchy to base conclusions - or even opinions - on. What you really need is 10,000 people, each breaking 10,000 medals (or cashing in a string of rubies), before we can really say thing conclusive.

I'm sympathetic to everyone who's had unlucky draws (4 straight bots, etc). When that happens, it is totally human and understandable to cry foul and suspect something crooked is afoot. But - per Occam's Razor - it need not be some conspiracy or twisted coding afoot. I just wanted to say that Ranoake is right - this is statistics.

[/math teacher mode off]