Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-10287686-20130822230448/@comment-10962369-20130826040018

Footballchemist wrote: 219.78.8.242 wrote: Not exactly - mathematically 1500 Rubies is 3 pulls, and the odds of making at least one MTM Prowl is 75%, not 100%. Consider the 2 cases where you don't get a complete Prowl, either R, R, R or A, A, A. The odds of either of that happening is 0.5 X 0.5 X 0.5 or 1/8. Therefore, the odds of you getting either R, R, R or A, A, A is twice 1/8 or 1/4. Therefore, the odds of getting a Prowl or is 1 minus 1/4 or 3/4 or 75%. This is correct. Though I believe I can make it a little clearer. Assuming the 50% pull rate is correct, after 3 pulls (1500 rubies) you have a 75% chance of completing a bot.

On pull one, you get a R or a Alt, on the two subsequent pulls, there are exactly four different outcomes:

R then R

R then Alt

Alt then R

Alt then Alt

3 out of 4 of those scenarios are going to give you the card you need, thus you have a 75% chance of completing the bot in four pulls.

Some other odds if you care:

4 pulls gives you a 87.5% chance of completing a bot

5 is 93.75%

6 is 96.875% and so on. It will never reach 100. The number of possible outcomes is quantified as 2^(n-1) with n being the number of pulls. All of those outcomes are going to include one scenario in which all pulls are bots or alts (the one scenario you do not want)

Still, a little over 3 players out of 100, statiscally speaking are going to pull 6 prowls alts or bots in a row. That would suck "6 is 96.875% and so on."

wow, so i've pulled 6 tracks alts and 0 bots. look at those odds. surely it's no coincidence. it should be mathematically possible to get a MTM from 6 tries. i've had FA luck. mobage have probably changed the pull rate. I honestly don't feel like it's 50%.