Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-10276925-20130831002217/@comment-11490363-20130831204800

SchappX54G wrote: Roanoake, you call my evidence anecdotal, and say that you see evidence otherwise, but that's not true. your evidence is as anecdotal as mine. this post is to get some real data, and so far I haven't enough input to conclude that I'm in an extreme minority. I know you're reading around the forum just as I am, and you can see CLEARLY there are several people with similar outcomes as I.

Why is my evidence anecdotal but your assumptions aren't?

Again, I'm not crying wtfhax anymore. I understand why the odds shouldn't be 50/50 if they want it to be difficult to obtain x7 cards (which have longevity post event) and to maintain a level of rarity associated with these cards. Otherwise people aren't going to spend $50 for the big pack! Right, my evidence is basically the same as yours, I just choose to interpret it differently, I guess that was my main point, which got totally lost.

Given a set of data with multiple explanations that both apparently fit the data, the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. i.e. there is no real evidence to support anything OTHER than a 50/50 bridge since it DOES also explain the evidence we see. We cannot differentiate between your theory and mine because we don't have enough data points, BUT that does not mean they are both equally likely. I could calculate the odds of that, but the math is tedious. 50/50 is the null hypothesis, to say it is anything else puts the burden of proof on you since the evidence we have is consistent with the null hypothesis.

As for comparing with other players, the sample of all the people that got long draws is not a representative sample, there is a clear bias, people that feel jilted are more likely to post their results, which skews the results. This is a big problem in surveys as a rule, and they strive very hard to avoid this, like random sampling, but we don't have that luxury, voluntary samples are most often biased.

As ARO pointed out with the calculations, the reason it is fine to give the X7 for free is because you still need to get 1500 rubies for a single pull of the level, AND you need to match 2 pulls, which as you know is not trivial despite it being a 50/50 chance each time. THAT is why it can be free, because after 2 pulls only half the people have what they want, and so the other half need another 1500, at which point half of those will have what they want etc... So the average cost is not 3000 (1500 x 2 pulls minimum) but more like 4500 or 6000, I forget the math.

@wiki person: the evidence does not point to profiteering for its own sake. Has anyone that complained aobut the chains NOT gotten it back? If so then it is as effective as if there were a dialog. Maybe they really dont have the time, but if they did not care and were truly milking people, they would not give you back your chains. That seems obvious to me.

Of course it is possible that they are not thinking long term, but I am not convinced yet. No company will run something dry unless they CAN'T make a good long term strategy, and that is rare. Cash cows are never drained completely.