Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-10276925-20130831002217/@comment-11490363-20130831183726

Schapp, I am not making assumptions, I am just saying that the data we have available to us is consistent with a 50/50 base rate. Other people's arguments are NOT consistent with their theories, based on the information we have. The information we do have is each person's individual results, which are few true. We know that there is a decent number of people using the (ruby) bridges. Several thousands I would say. Based on that, the evidence fits an assumption of straight 50/50. As mentioned before, it is not conclusive, but it fits. If someone had a run of 100 then we would have something, but 10 is not a problem for this theory.

Also, I do not see a lot of people posting about how completely average and expected their pulls were (other than me). Though that is changing thanks to this post, but even then I was just offering a possible explanation for why it *seems* that the odds are off. I do not know this for sure, but I would bet my next paycheck the numbers would prove it right if we could check.

As for our population being an adequate sample, that hints to a confidence interval, which is to say, how close to a typical sample are we, and therefore how far off from the true average are we. A true statistical analysis would require much more date but all I am saying is that the data we do have does not indicate any huge red flags by themselves, they *could* easily be consistent with the assumption of a 50/50 ruby bridge. That said, it is not conclusive, but there is no evidence to support that it is NOT 50/50. Anecdotes are not evidence, just data points that need to be combined with others.

I am only talking about the rubies bridge, though I suspect that the paid bridge is similar. However, since all 3 versions are available in a single bridge, the odds are different, likely in such a way that the reflect the number of rubies required in the ruby bridge.

To give a concrete example, the paid bridge for JUST sharpshot where you can get any of the 3 possible ones could be something like this:

X3 10 weight ( = 1500 / 150)

X5 2 weight ( = 1500 / 750)

X7 1 weight ( = 1500 / 1500 - BASE)

Adding all the weights we get 13. Then the probabilities would be:

X3 = 10 / 13

X5 = 2 / 13

X7 = 1 / 13

This would be in addition to or in parallel to whatever other episode cards are in that particular bridge. The math gets more complicated as you add more options but preserving relative odds is not impossible.

My experience with the Elites is opposite in the sense that I have the ones you are looking for but I am missing the ones you already have. That is expected. IF you want, I could calculate the odds of your permutation, and you could see that it is well within the expected range given all the possible options. Probability and statistics are a strange beast sometimes.

As an example, did you know that there is a 70-80% chance that 2 classmates in a class of 30 people share a birthday? Not intuitive, given that there are 365 days in a year, but 100% true. The numbers don't lie.