Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-13368701-20130905202323/@comment-173.162.35.90-20130906152451

Ranoake wrote: Optimus2861 wrote: Selection bias. The players who have very good or very bad luck will be the ones who tend to post their stories (there's a thread elsewhere about a player who snagged two MTM Megatrons in one or two tiers of the bridge plus his weapon; incredibly good luck). The average schmucks don't tend to tell their dull stories ("Yeah I made 3 pulls and got 2 bots and 1 alt").

We'd need a truly unbiased random sample of players to get an accurate picture of the odds and we don't have it. Barring that, the simplest explanation is likely the truth. Granted this is Mobage and they are experts at designing these "suck you in and then drain your wallet" type games so.. who knows, really. Actually I think the bias cancels out in this case. People with streaks are the most vocal, and if the odds are indeed 50/50 then there would be just as many biases on one side as the other and so it cancels. If there are more to one side than the other, then that would support a theory of NOT 50/50. Not necessarily. If the SB can detect cards you already own (as some have suggested), there could be streaks for both bot and alt but the odds might still not be 50/50 for each individual.