Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-10727129-20130912233121/@comment-11490363-20130916043343

219.78.8.242 wrote: Just adding my two cents to this overall very intelligent conversation:

- 3mn points per hour in the final 2~3 hours is realistic, however I can't see it beginning to rise at this rate as early as 6 hours before the end.

- I don't think you should double the cutoff at T-24 hours to estimate the cutoff. Consider that at T-24 hours the cutoff will be around 32~35mn points. If you double that, you get between 65~70mn points, and at the max energon burn rate of 3mn points per hour, you would barely make it if you played for 24 hours straight. I think adding 20mn points to the T-24 hour cutoff score would be a decent estimate, so I'm going to say final cutoff at 52~55mn points in the worse case scenario. If my first two points hold, it will be much less, around 45mn points. My projections are based on previous data. Both previous events showed that the final score was roughly double the 24 hour score.

My estimate was 55.3M, that was 2 days ago with less data. My next estimate will be double the 24 hour value, whatever it is tomorrow. These 2 estimates should be fairly close.

If I had more time I would build a more accurate model, but these 2 models have low margins of error, maybe 10-15%, which is not awesome, but good enough.