Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-10276925-20130831002217/@comment-10276925-20130831180914

Many of you make solid probabilistic arguments but what I take issue with all of you saying "probability and statistics, bro" is that you're all MAKING ASSUMPTIONS.

Has Mobage stated that the odds of the free bridge are 50/50? Why are we assuming that something free would be 50/50 because there are only two options? THIS DOESN'T MEAN THEY SHOULD BE. After thinking about it, it is a "free" bridge to access the top raid cards, and since the Rubys are obtained without directly paying for them, it makes sense to make it harder to obtain both halves as opposed to a directly paid bridge. I would be interested to see the probabilities that I'm looking at.

Another assumption by Roanoake is he's sure those getting the low probability results are much more vocal and therefore they appear larger than they are, whereas they're actually the expected populace in that result category. That's a blind assumption with less actual evidence than what I've proposed here, and what's been discussed in other threads by those who have runs of x3s and x5s of one half. Also, this forum doesn't make up the whole population of the game, and therefore we have to assume that our group MAY represent an adequate sample size. If an unexpected number of the population of this forum and something similar for the overall population of the game is finding these odds terrible, then it MAY BE a legitimate argument.

All I'm doing is noting my own experiences and trying to collect knowledge of others to make an INFORMED CALL. The truth is, those of you who are getting favorable draws are saying the bridge is 50/50, while a large number of us seem to be in the land of low probabilistic outcomes when a 50/50 rate is assumed. It's still early in this event, but you can see that for me, the two events have not been favorable.

As for PRAXIZ point, I have a disproportionate amount of r4 Elite pairs of the same cards relative to my MTM cards. Also, I've seen a higher drop rate based on lower card stats. What I mean is I've MTM'd several elite prowl, skywarp, and Arcee, but can't complete these half trypticon or primes.